Musik @ Centrifugen

Jag har varnat om detta tidigare men nu framstår detta mer som en möjlighet än en omöjlighet. Nu kommer Morgan Stanley med en rapport där man lyfter upp problematiken med Grekland och anser att likviditetsproblemen är lösta på kort sikt men på längre sikt har man större bekymmer. Länder kan komma att lämna Euron för att därefter skapa/återinföra en egen valuta som man kan hantera. Det kommer att vara smärtsamt men kan bli enda vägen allteftersom fler och fler länder inom eurozonen behöver stöd och lägger än mer press på Euron.

Här är några höjdpunkter från rapporten:

The bail-out and the ECB’s softer collateral stance set a bad precedent for other euro area member states and make it more likely that the euro area degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness and higher inflationary pressures over time. If so, countries with a high preference for price stability, such as Germany, might conclude that they would be better off with a harder but smaller currency union. And because the Maastricht Treaty does not provide for the possibility of expelling euro area members, the only way how Germany could achieve this would be by leaving the euro to introduce a stronger currency.

Slutligen:

What are the signposts that would indicate our break-up scenario is in fact unfolding?

• First, watch fiscal developments in other euro area countries closely: Our suspicion is that the aid package for Greece lessens other governments’ resolve to tighten fiscal policy, especially in an environment of ongoing economic stagnation or recession.
• Second, watch ECB policy closely: If the ECB turns out to be slow in raising interest rates once inflation pressures return, this would be a sign of a politicisation of monetary policy.
• Third, watch the political debate in Germany: Support for Greece has been extremely unpopular and fears that the euro will turn into a soft currency abound. If the aid package for Greece, which so far is a backstop credit line, becomes activated, eurosceptic forces would receive a significant further boost. And, needless to say, if other countries also needed financial support, this would further strengthen euro opposition.

Nu är min fråga, hur många vill gå med i Eurosamarbetet?

Källa:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-warns-germany-may-decide-secede-emu
http://mfc.elmberg.net/2010/01/30/valutakrisen-narmar-sig-med-stormsteg/
http://mfc.elmberg.net/2009/12/17/greklands-kris-ar-borjan-pa-en-uppdelning-av-euron/